What Does the #Flatteningthecurve Graph Say?

In the upcoming weeks, our graph experts, Nathan and Hilton, will help you understand the graphics which illustrate the COVID-19 situation and the real message behind them, their bias and/or miscomprehensions. We decided that we should help better understand the situation, because we believe that it is important to simplify the information and make it in an effective way more accessible to everybody in this society. What better way to keep ourselves busy while learning new things. If you are waiting for this pandemic to be over and you would like to make it more pleasant, join our online course to learn more about data science or simply stay in touch with subjects like probability, statistics, linear regression and logistic regression.

#Flatteningthecurve Graphic

This Monday, we would like to begin the week with this very popular curve which was adapted by VOX . We have seen this graphic during the past week with the hashtag #Flatteningthecurve which became a very big hit.  It had a huge impact on this society with more than 250 245 publications on Instagram and more than 350 tweets per hour from people who were supporting this social movement throughout all the countries. At first glance, people understand the primary message it wants to share, but what other information does this graph send or even hide. Our expert Hilton is sharing his expertise with us on the subject. 

“This is a Gaussian or normal distribution which can be simply referred to as Gaussian. It’s the most important distribution in statistics and the coolest one. In the graph below, the height represents the cases per day and the area under each bump represents the total number of cases. It shows a pink graph which illustrates the rapid increases of daily cases without protective measures.  The grey graph represents cases if we take protective measures to prevent the rapid increase of the number of cases. These graphs use current and/or previous information to make predictions about the future.

Even though the information used is accurate, they are still only predictions and didn’t happen which can confuse people. The advantage of this graph is that it gives a clear representation if we follow the measures compared to the case where we don’t respect them. It looks like without protective measures the number of daily cases increases rapidly and goes over the healthcare system capacity and decreases faster in a shorter period compared to the situation where we take protective measures. If we use protective measures, we  are able to stay under the healthcare system capacity represented by a grey line and it won’t be overcrowded. The grey graph might have started and finished later with protective measures compared to the pink graph, but the system will be able to support the number of cases. This is, of course, a prediction, but it gives a general idea on how we should address the situation to limit the number of cases in the weeks to come.”

Pssst! Send us interesting graphs in the comments if you want to learn more on how to read graphs at team@korbit.ai.

Stay tuned! We are coming with new graphic analysis.

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